Anthem to likely exit ACA for 2018

News of the Jefferies' analysis first was reported by Bloomberg.

Anthem currently insures more than 800,000 individual plan customers in 144 rating regions in 14 states.

Other major insurers, including Aetna, UnitedHealthcare, Cigna and Humana, have already scaled back their footprints in the Obamacare markets.

But Anthem's exit would potentially have a bigger impact.

Earlier this month, an analysis by Axios.com said, "An Anthem exit would cause arguably the most disruption nationwide."

"Roughly 255,000 people across Colorado, Kentucky, Missouri and Ohio would have no Obamacare insurers for 2018, and 560,000 people in eight states would have just one insurer," the analysis by Axios.com said.

Anthem's management has indicated that it would like regulatory changes that could lower the financial risk it runs in insuring Obamacare customers.

The Jefferies report said that management told the analysts that "regulatory advocacy needs to progress significantly in the next 'month or so.' "

"Improvements such as eligibility verification, more rigid special enrollment periods, shortening of premium grace periods are steps in the right direction, but not enough," the Jefferies analysts wrote of Anthem's view.

Another factor that would play into Anthem's decision on whether, and to what extent, to pull out of Obamacare markets is the level of health claims that its current pool of customers will end up having this year.

Management told Jefferies that it normally takes up to six months of claims "to get a sense of risk profile on its new enrollees (so, mid-year)."